The Pakistan Elections: What Next? -- II

(left to right) Robert Hathaway, Director Asia Program Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, Eirc Bjornlund (Cofounder and Principal of Democracy International), Hassan Abbas (Research Fellow at Harvard University’s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs), Hassan Askari Rizvi (Annual Pakistan Studies Scholar at John Hopkins University’s School of Advanced International Studies), and Marvin Weinbaum (Scholar-in-Residence at the Middle East Institute) at an event “The Pakistan Elections: What Next?” organized by the Woodrow Wilson Center for Scholars (Photo: Rana Fawad)

'Nawaz to inherit the democratic wind'

In his analysis, Marvin Weinbaum found the Pakistani voters’ enthusiasm against the establishment in this election similar to that in 1971. He termed it a historic election in the sense that “It is the first truly democratic, constitutional transfer of power in Pakistan’s history.” He added that it was a verdict on the last few years of the previous government.

Marvin Weinbaum commented that it was ‘bread and butter election’ because the shortages in wheat and energy really turned people against the incumbent government.

He agreed with Eric Bjornlund that there was a biased pre-election atmosphere in terms of access to the media, the way the Punjab government distributed jobs, judiciary, etc., and “this was meant to go the way of the government.”

He said as far as the United States was concerned, this election was supposed to take the heat off Musharraf. “Obviously, it burned him and burned him very severely,” he commented.

Referring to the down side of this election, Marvin Weinbaum was of the view that it remained about personalities. “It was not an election about issues, manifestoes and, therefore, was keeping in the tone of Pakistan’s politics,” he said and added, “This has to be a disappointment.”

Talking about the voters in Pakistan, Marvin Weinbaum mentioned that contrary to a perception held by many, the electorate was moderate. “It is certainly a conservative electorate, Islamic electorate. But not one which has ever seen the religious leaders as desirable as the leaders of the country,” he argued.

As for the war on terrorism and the impact of the elections, he said on balance it was a good outcome because it meant the future policy on the issue would emerge out of the elected government. He explained that sooner or later the new government would have to recognize the challenges posed by the extremism.

However, he warned that the new policy on terrorism in that region should be disconnected from the American link. He pointed out that as long as the policy was perceived as an American project the people of the country would not support it, though they were turned off by the extremists.

He regretted that apart from congratulating the winners, the US also reminded them of the importance of the war on terrorism. “We would have been better off, if we had left off the latter part of our congratulatory remarks,” he suggested.

Marvin Weinbaum commented that the US policy of seeing Musharraf as indispensable had failed to recognize the change taking place in that country. He added that the US policy did not recognize that Musharraf was increasingly irrelevant because the people gave their verdict against him and he was not any more the army chief.

He said it was going to be the army, feeling the support of the people, which would determine the extent of the policy on extremism. He warned that, “The last thing we should be perceived of now is meddling in that. And I’m afraid that’s the way it’s being seen in Pakistan.”

He told the audience that after the elections, the Pakistani newspapers were already saying the US should stay out of that.

Referring to the US policy on Pakistan, he said it was ironical that “Every time we tried to help Musharraf, we usually make it worse for him. We have failed to appreciate that the last thing he needs is our praise because naturally this reinforces the idea that he acts as an instrument of American policy.”

He pointed out that the congratulations had been provided specifically to Musharraf for holding a free and fair election. “It’s very much like congratulating the thief who, with all his preparations, decided not to rob the bank,” he quipped.

Commenting on the future prospects of democracy in Pakistan, he struck an optimistic note by saying that unlike 1990s, when the political parties gave democracy a black eye, this election gave the leaders another opportunity which is more than just jockeying for power.

Shedding some light on the future leadership in Pakistan, he predicted Asif Zardari would be grooming himself for power in the coming days though Amin Fahim would be the prime minister for the time being.

As for Nawaz Sharif, he said, “I think ultimately the man who will inherit the democratic wind here is going to be Nawaz Sharif” and added, “If this goes in a direction I see it is going, I’m afraid there will be an election long before the next scheduled election.”

He hinted that in the next election largely a unified Muslim League would emerge as the leading party.

Marvin Weinbaum concluded his comments by saying that democracy has another opportunity and the time for the military government is up.